Will malaria return to Europe under the greenhouse effect?

W. Takken, J. van de Wege, T.H. Jetten

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paperAcademic


Malaria risk is determined by environmental and socio-economic factors. The predicted climate change under the greenhouse effect is likely to affect the epidemic potential of malaria due to a change in vector mosquito phenology and distribution. This effect was simulated using a computer model incorporating mosquito life stages and parasite infections in the mosquito and human host. It was found that both air and water temperature are the most important factors determining mosquito phenolo- gy and density. A temperature rise of +4°C shows major changes in mosquito distributions and densities at a worldwide scale, but more so in temperature regions than near the equator. The European situation was taken as an example to study epidemic potential under climate change. Malaria risk, in particular that of Plasmodi- um vivax, would increase under climate change. There is little risk for transmission of P. falciparum in currently temperate areas because the local anophelines are refracto- ry to this parasite. In areas adjacent to malaria endemic regions, however, climate change may cause a dramatic shift in P. falciparum risk.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationClimate change research: evaluation and policy implications
EditorsS. Zwerver
Place of PublicationAmsterdam
ISBN (Print)9780444821430
Publication statusPublished - 1995

Publication series

NameStudies in environmental science
ISSN (Print)0166-1116


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