Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands

A sectoral market model and a stochastic epidemiological model were used to simulate the effects of classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the Netherlands in 1997-1998. Compulsory EU control measures were implemented. Welfare changes of Dutch stakeholders, as well as government costs, were calculated. In a medium-sized epidemic without export restrictions, pig producers' surplus increased by Euro 502 million, but producers within quarantine areas lost. Consumer surplus fell by Euro 552 million. With a ban on live pig exports, pig producers collectively lost whereas consumers gained or experienced only a small loss. Government costs were lower when exports were banned, although net welfare losses were higher. Net welfare losses increased more than proportionately with epidemic size.