Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands

M.J.J. Mangen, A.M. Burrell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A sectoral market model and a stochastic epidemiological model were used to simulate the effects of classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the Netherlands in 1997-1998. Compulsory EU control measures were implemented. Welfare changes of Dutch stakeholders, as well as government costs, were calculated. In a medium-sized epidemic without export restrictions, pig producers' surplus increased by Euro 502 million, but producers within quarantine areas lost. Consumer surplus fell by Euro 552 million. With a ban on live pig exports, pig producers collectively lost whereas consumers gained or experienced only a small loss. Government costs were lower when exports were banned, although net welfare losses were higher. Net welfare losses increased more than proportionately with epidemic size.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)125-154
JournalEuropean Review of Agricultural Economics
Volume30
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2003

Keywords

  • stochastic simulation
  • control strategies
  • eradication program
  • disease control
  • mouth-disease
  • impact
  • model
  • australia
  • evaluate
  • events

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