Vooruitblik op klimaatrisico’s voor de Nederlandse landbouw & veehouderij in 2050 en 2100 : Drie lineaire risicoanalyses van de gevolgen van droogte, vochtschade en hittestress a.d.h.v. de KNMI’23-klimaatscenario’s

This document is a background report for the national review of climate risks in the context of the Dutch national adaptation strategy. Dutch farmers can expect strong warming and increasing precipitation deficits, resulting in frequent droughts during the summer months. Prolonged humid periods and extreme precipitation will also increase. Both have a mediocre expected economic risk. Heat in livestock farming can lead to a medium to high economic final risk. Both technical and spatial scenarios reduce these climate risks, with the spatial scenario having more potential but also uncertainty. New risks arise in the interaction between climate hazards and in competition for water. Making clear choices for the future of agriculture, in combination with no-regrets such as soil improvement, system diversification and precision agriculture, offers a solid starting point for any climate adaptation scenario.