Verification of inflow into hydropower reservoirs using ensemble forecasts of the TIGGE database for large scale basins in Brazil

F. Mainardi Fan, D. Schwanenberg, W. Collischonn, A.H. Weerts

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Study region This paper describes a major ensemble-forecasts verification effort for inflows of three large-scale river basins of Brazil: Upper São Francisco, Doce, and Tocantins Rivers. Study focus In experimental scenarios, inflow forecasts were generated forcing one hydrological model with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from three selected models of the TIGGE database. This study provides information on the regional ensemble performance and also evaluates how different QPF models respond for the different basins and what happens with the use of combined QPF in a greater ensemble. New hydrological insights for the region This work presents one of the first extensive efforts to evaluate ensemble forecasts for large-scale basins in South America using TIGGE archive data. Results from these scenarios provide validation criteria and confirm that ensemble forecasts depend on the particular EPS used to run the hydrological model and on the basin studied. Furthermore, the use of the Super Ensemble seems to be a good strategy in terms of performance and robustness. The importance of the TIGGE database is also highlighted.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)196-227
JournalJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Volume4
Issue numberPt. B
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

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