Projects per year
Abstract
Recent outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBD) highlight
the need for effective surveillance systems for (early) detection
of VBDs. Active surveillance, i.e. searching for infected
individuals, is expensive for emerging vector-borne
diseases, because of required repeated sampling. Furthermore,
the introduction of an emerging disease will occur
focal and at low initial prevalence. Focusing active surveillance
using risk factors of disease may increase the sensitivity
and improve the cost-effectiveness of the system.
We propose a dynamic system for risk-based surveillance
of VBD based on these three pillars: 1) estimating risk
of introduction, 2) risk of spread (modeling R0) and 3)
analysing routinely collected production and health related
data. Together these three constitute an effective tool for
targeted surveillance on time windows and areas. Each of
the three components provides independent indices for
the risk of outbreaks, and together provide a more accurate
risk score, taking into account the potential for occurrence
(risk of transmission and of introduction) and the probability
that an outbreak is going on (syndrome and passive
surveillance). This approach may greatly focus the costly
active surveillance increasing the output of the surveillance
effort.
Here we will present the first preliminary results of our
efforts to combine risk of introduction, R0 modelling and
signals from production and health related data. We will
show the methodology to combine these three different
sources of information.
Original language | English |
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Publication status | Published - 2014 |
Event | Med-Vet-Net Association International Scientific Conference DTU - Lyngby, Denmark Duration: 24 Jun 2013 → 25 Jun 2013 |
Conference/symposium
Conference/symposium | Med-Vet-Net Association International Scientific Conference DTU |
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Country/Territory | Denmark |
City | Lyngby |
Period | 24/06/13 → 25/06/13 |
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