Abstract
A methodology is presented for assessing risks and opportunities associated with crop production and fertilizer use in the tropics using statistical methods in combination with crop modelling. The method of risk assessment is suited for taking different production goals and attitudes towards risk of farmers into account. It is suited for quantifying production and financial risks and opportunities for crops cultivated in different agro-ecological zones. Special attention is paid to the fitting of statistical distribution functions to yield series in different environments and for different management practices. The methodology includes sensitivity analysis for indicating the scope for possible adaptation to potential risks. Finally, by presenting some experimental and simulated yields series for different crops and management practices, some possible sources and magnitudes of risks in different agro-ecological environments are illustrated.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 41-68 |
Journal | Agricultural Systems |
Volume | 53 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1997 |