Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

Arturo Torres Matallana*, U. Leopold, G.B.M. Heuvelink

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paper

Abstract

Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused by combined sewer overflows. This paper presents an uncertainty propagation analysis in urban hydrology modelling. The case study was the Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg for one yearly time series measured in 2010, and 10 individual rainfall events measured in 2011. The selection of model input variables for uncertainty quantification was based on their level of uncertainty and model sensitivity. Probability distribution functions were defined to represent the uncertainty of the input variables. We applied a Monte Carlo technique using a simplified model, EmiStatR, which simulates the volume and substance flows in urban drainage systems. We focus in loads and concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and ammonium, which are important variables for wastewater and surface water quality management.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016
EditorsJean-Stéphanie Bailly, Daniel Griffith, Didier Josselin
PublisherInternational Spatial Accuracy Research Association (ISARA)
Pages313-321
ISBN (Print)9782910545105
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Event12th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2016 - Montpellier, France
Duration: 5 Jul 20168 Jul 2016

Conference

Conference12th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2016
CountryFrance
CityMontpellier
Period5/07/168/07/16

Fingerprint

Uncertainty Propagation
Hydrology
Water Quality
Water quality
urban drainage
hydrology
uncertainty
water quality
Uncertainty
water
Modeling
modeling
Uncertainty Quantification
chemical oxygen demand
Dimensioning
Water Management
Waste Water
Surface Quality
Quality Management
Overflow

Keywords

  • EmiStatR
  • Monte Carlo
  • Uncertainty propagation
  • Urban hydrology modelling

Cite this

Torres Matallana, A., Leopold, U., & Heuvelink, G. B. M. (2016). Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling. In J-S. Bailly, D. Griffith, & D. Josselin (Eds.), Proceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016 (pp. 313-321). International Spatial Accuracy Research Association (ISARA).
Torres Matallana, Arturo ; Leopold, U. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. / Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling. Proceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016. editor / Jean-Stéphanie Bailly ; Daniel Griffith ; Didier Josselin. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association (ISARA), 2016. pp. 313-321
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Torres Matallana, A, Leopold, U & Heuvelink, GBM 2016, Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling. in J-S Bailly, D Griffith & D Josselin (eds), Proceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association (ISARA), pp. 313-321, 12th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2016, Montpellier, France, 5/07/16.

Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling. / Torres Matallana, Arturo; Leopold, U.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

Proceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016. ed. / Jean-Stéphanie Bailly; Daniel Griffith; Didier Josselin. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association (ISARA), 2016. p. 313-321.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paper

TY - GEN

T1 - Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

AU - Torres Matallana, Arturo

AU - Leopold, U.

AU - Heuvelink, G.B.M.

PY - 2016

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N2 - Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused by combined sewer overflows. This paper presents an uncertainty propagation analysis in urban hydrology modelling. The case study was the Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg for one yearly time series measured in 2010, and 10 individual rainfall events measured in 2011. The selection of model input variables for uncertainty quantification was based on their level of uncertainty and model sensitivity. Probability distribution functions were defined to represent the uncertainty of the input variables. We applied a Monte Carlo technique using a simplified model, EmiStatR, which simulates the volume and substance flows in urban drainage systems. We focus in loads and concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and ammonium, which are important variables for wastewater and surface water quality management.

AB - Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused by combined sewer overflows. This paper presents an uncertainty propagation analysis in urban hydrology modelling. The case study was the Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg for one yearly time series measured in 2010, and 10 individual rainfall events measured in 2011. The selection of model input variables for uncertainty quantification was based on their level of uncertainty and model sensitivity. Probability distribution functions were defined to represent the uncertainty of the input variables. We applied a Monte Carlo technique using a simplified model, EmiStatR, which simulates the volume and substance flows in urban drainage systems. We focus in loads and concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and ammonium, which are important variables for wastewater and surface water quality management.

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SN - 9782910545105

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BT - Proceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016

A2 - Bailly, Jean-Stéphanie

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Torres Matallana A, Leopold U, Heuvelink GBM. Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling. In Bailly J-S, Griffith D, Josselin D, editors, Proceedings of Spatial Accuracy 2016. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association (ISARA). 2016. p. 313-321