Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices - a water quality case study

R.M. Bijlsma, P. Groenendijk, M. Blind, A.Y. Hoekstra

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis for large-scale model studies is a challenging activity that requires a different approach to uncertainty analysis at a smaller scale. However, in river basin studies, the practice of uncertainty analysis at a large scale is mostly derived from practice at a small scale. The limitations and inherent subjectivity of some current practices and assumptions are identified, based on the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis exploring the effects of input data and parameter uncertainty on surface water nutrient concentration. We show that: (i) although the results from small- scale sensitivity analysis are often applied at larger scales, this is not always valid; (ii) the current restriction of the uncertainty assessment to uncertainty types with a strong evidence base gives structurally conservative estimates; (iii) uncertainty due to bias is usually not assessed, but it may easily outweigh the effects of variability; (iv) the uncertainty bandwidth may increase for higher aggregation levels, although the opposite is the standard assumption.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-9
JournalWater Science and Technology
Volume56
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007

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