Triangulating agent-based models, role-playing games, and a stakeholder-centric approach to change scenarios

Assertion of the validity of the way agents’ decision-making remains one of the central epistemological problems in empirical agent-based model (ABM) simulations. Reliable and robust models of individual and group-level decision-making are needed if scenarios are to be relevant for policies with implications in natural resource management. Serious games (in the form of role-playing games) have emerged as stakeholder-centric ways of parameterizing human behavior and decision-making and validating ABM results. Iterations between games and ABMs may offer attractive options for quality control in salient, credible, and legitimate ABM use. However, a revisit to a validated case study after six years suggested that models and games generate ‘prospects’ rather than ‘predictions’ as events not foreseen in model development added to recognized parameter uncertainty.