In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is used to obtain parameter estimates. The approach is illustrated by two case studies. The results are promising, but the procedures are just a first step into an appropriate combination of expert combination, which has to be completed on important issues, such as the identification of some well-known biases.
|Name||Rapport / Agrotechnology & Food Sciences Group|
|Publisher||Agrotechnology & Food Sciences Group|
- bayesian theory
- data analysis
- case studies