Transmission risks and control of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands: Spatial patterns

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

n 2001 the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Great Britain, The Netherlands and France have shown how fast FMDV may spread between farms. The massive socio-economic impact of these epidemics and the intervention measures taken demonstrate the need for quantitative assessments of the efficacy of candidate intervention strategies. Here we use a mathematical model to describe the spatial transmission of FMDV in The Netherlands and use the Dutch 2001 outbreak data to estimate model parameters. We assess the effect of ring culling strategies using a novel and fast approach producing risk maps, and discuss its consequences for ring vaccination. These risk maps identify both the geographical areas of low risk, where a given intervention strategy is likely to achieve epidemic control within only two or three farm-to-farm infection generations, and high-risk areas, where control is likely to take (much) longer. Our results indicate that certain densely populated livestock areas in the Netherlands remain high-risk areas even for strategies that extend EU minimum measures with culling or vaccination within a ring radius of several kilometres. Depending on an economic assessment, area-wide vaccination might be judged appropriate once an FMDV outbreak would have been confirmed in or close to such a high-density area. The modeling approach developed here could be readily applied to outbreak data for other diseases and in other countries.
LanguageEnglish
Pages36-47
JournalEpidemics
Volume2
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Fingerprint

Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus
Netherlands
Disease Outbreaks
Vaccination
Economics
Needs Assessment
Livestock
France
Theoretical Models
Infection
Farms

Cite this

@article{44943984bf474336bd73948b65150d5c,
title = "Transmission risks and control of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands: Spatial patterns",
abstract = "n 2001 the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Great Britain, The Netherlands and France have shown how fast FMDV may spread between farms. The massive socio-economic impact of these epidemics and the intervention measures taken demonstrate the need for quantitative assessments of the efficacy of candidate intervention strategies. Here we use a mathematical model to describe the spatial transmission of FMDV in The Netherlands and use the Dutch 2001 outbreak data to estimate model parameters. We assess the effect of ring culling strategies using a novel and fast approach producing risk maps, and discuss its consequences for ring vaccination. These risk maps identify both the geographical areas of low risk, where a given intervention strategy is likely to achieve epidemic control within only two or three farm-to-farm infection generations, and high-risk areas, where control is likely to take (much) longer. Our results indicate that certain densely populated livestock areas in the Netherlands remain high-risk areas even for strategies that extend EU minimum measures with culling or vaccination within a ring radius of several kilometres. Depending on an economic assessment, area-wide vaccination might be judged appropriate once an FMDV outbreak would have been confirmed in or close to such a high-density area. The modeling approach developed here could be readily applied to outbreak data for other diseases and in other countries.",
author = "G.J. Boender and {van Roermund}, H.J.W. and {de Jong}, M.C.M. and T.H.J. Hagenaars",
year = "2010",
doi = "10.1016/j.epidem.2010.03.001",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
pages = "36--47",
journal = "Epidemics",
issn = "1755-4365",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "1",

}

Transmission risks and control of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands: Spatial patterns. / Boender, G.J.; van Roermund, H.J.W.; de Jong, M.C.M.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.

In: Epidemics, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2010, p. 36-47.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Transmission risks and control of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands: Spatial patterns

AU - Boender, G.J.

AU - van Roermund, H.J.W.

AU - de Jong, M.C.M.

AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - n 2001 the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Great Britain, The Netherlands and France have shown how fast FMDV may spread between farms. The massive socio-economic impact of these epidemics and the intervention measures taken demonstrate the need for quantitative assessments of the efficacy of candidate intervention strategies. Here we use a mathematical model to describe the spatial transmission of FMDV in The Netherlands and use the Dutch 2001 outbreak data to estimate model parameters. We assess the effect of ring culling strategies using a novel and fast approach producing risk maps, and discuss its consequences for ring vaccination. These risk maps identify both the geographical areas of low risk, where a given intervention strategy is likely to achieve epidemic control within only two or three farm-to-farm infection generations, and high-risk areas, where control is likely to take (much) longer. Our results indicate that certain densely populated livestock areas in the Netherlands remain high-risk areas even for strategies that extend EU minimum measures with culling or vaccination within a ring radius of several kilometres. Depending on an economic assessment, area-wide vaccination might be judged appropriate once an FMDV outbreak would have been confirmed in or close to such a high-density area. The modeling approach developed here could be readily applied to outbreak data for other diseases and in other countries.

AB - n 2001 the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Great Britain, The Netherlands and France have shown how fast FMDV may spread between farms. The massive socio-economic impact of these epidemics and the intervention measures taken demonstrate the need for quantitative assessments of the efficacy of candidate intervention strategies. Here we use a mathematical model to describe the spatial transmission of FMDV in The Netherlands and use the Dutch 2001 outbreak data to estimate model parameters. We assess the effect of ring culling strategies using a novel and fast approach producing risk maps, and discuss its consequences for ring vaccination. These risk maps identify both the geographical areas of low risk, where a given intervention strategy is likely to achieve epidemic control within only two or three farm-to-farm infection generations, and high-risk areas, where control is likely to take (much) longer. Our results indicate that certain densely populated livestock areas in the Netherlands remain high-risk areas even for strategies that extend EU minimum measures with culling or vaccination within a ring radius of several kilometres. Depending on an economic assessment, area-wide vaccination might be judged appropriate once an FMDV outbreak would have been confirmed in or close to such a high-density area. The modeling approach developed here could be readily applied to outbreak data for other diseases and in other countries.

U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.03.001

DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.03.001

M3 - Article

VL - 2

SP - 36

EP - 47

JO - Epidemics

T2 - Epidemics

JF - Epidemics

SN - 1755-4365

IS - 1

ER -