Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study

Fabio Sferra, Mario Krapp, Niklas Roming, Michiel Schaeffer, Aman Malik, Bill Hare, Robert Brecha

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a policy-support approach for evaluating NDCs and guiding enhanced ambition. The approach rests on deriving national targets in line with the Paris Agreement by downscaling regional results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to the country level. The method of downscaling relies on a reduced complexity IAM: SIAMESE (Simplified Integrated Assessment Model with Energy System Emulator). We apply the approach to an EU28 member state – Finland – with the aim of providing useful insights for policy makers to consider cost-effective mitigation options. Results over the historical period confirm that our approach is valid when national policies are similar to those across the larger IAM region, but must include country-specific circumstances. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. We assess the remaining carbon budget and analyse the different implications of 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limits for the emissions pathway and energy mix in Finland over the 21st century.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110705
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume133
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2019

Fingerprint

downscaling
Global warming
carbon budget
twenty first century
energy
global warming
mitigation
Carbon
Costs
cost
policy
Temperature
temperature
method

Keywords

  • 1.5 °C pathway
  • Downscaling
  • Energy sector
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Mitigation
  • Paris agreement

Cite this

Sferra, Fabio ; Krapp, Mario ; Roming, Niklas ; Schaeffer, Michiel ; Malik, Aman ; Hare, Bill ; Brecha, Robert. / Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries : A Finland case study. In: Energy Policy. 2019 ; Vol. 133.
@article{26c721f040464db49f9ee19bef6792c1,
title = "Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study",
abstract = "Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a policy-support approach for evaluating NDCs and guiding enhanced ambition. The approach rests on deriving national targets in line with the Paris Agreement by downscaling regional results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to the country level. The method of downscaling relies on a reduced complexity IAM: SIAMESE (Simplified Integrated Assessment Model with Energy System Emulator). We apply the approach to an EU28 member state – Finland – with the aim of providing useful insights for policy makers to consider cost-effective mitigation options. Results over the historical period confirm that our approach is valid when national policies are similar to those across the larger IAM region, but must include country-specific circumstances. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. We assess the remaining carbon budget and analyse the different implications of 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limits for the emissions pathway and energy mix in Finland over the 21st century.",
keywords = "1.5 °C pathway, Downscaling, Energy sector, Integrated assessment models, Mitigation, Paris agreement",
author = "Fabio Sferra and Mario Krapp and Niklas Roming and Michiel Schaeffer and Aman Malik and Bill Hare and Robert Brecha",
year = "2019",
month = "10",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.020",
language = "English",
volume = "133",
journal = "Energy Policy",
issn = "0301-4215",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries : A Finland case study. / Sferra, Fabio; Krapp, Mario; Roming, Niklas; Schaeffer, Michiel; Malik, Aman; Hare, Bill; Brecha, Robert.

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 133, 110705, 01.10.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries

T2 - A Finland case study

AU - Sferra, Fabio

AU - Krapp, Mario

AU - Roming, Niklas

AU - Schaeffer, Michiel

AU - Malik, Aman

AU - Hare, Bill

AU - Brecha, Robert

PY - 2019/10/1

Y1 - 2019/10/1

N2 - Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a policy-support approach for evaluating NDCs and guiding enhanced ambition. The approach rests on deriving national targets in line with the Paris Agreement by downscaling regional results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to the country level. The method of downscaling relies on a reduced complexity IAM: SIAMESE (Simplified Integrated Assessment Model with Energy System Emulator). We apply the approach to an EU28 member state – Finland – with the aim of providing useful insights for policy makers to consider cost-effective mitigation options. Results over the historical period confirm that our approach is valid when national policies are similar to those across the larger IAM region, but must include country-specific circumstances. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. We assess the remaining carbon budget and analyse the different implications of 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limits for the emissions pathway and energy mix in Finland over the 21st century.

AB - Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a policy-support approach for evaluating NDCs and guiding enhanced ambition. The approach rests on deriving national targets in line with the Paris Agreement by downscaling regional results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to the country level. The method of downscaling relies on a reduced complexity IAM: SIAMESE (Simplified Integrated Assessment Model with Energy System Emulator). We apply the approach to an EU28 member state – Finland – with the aim of providing useful insights for policy makers to consider cost-effective mitigation options. Results over the historical period confirm that our approach is valid when national policies are similar to those across the larger IAM region, but must include country-specific circumstances. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. We assess the remaining carbon budget and analyse the different implications of 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limits for the emissions pathway and energy mix in Finland over the 21st century.

KW - 1.5 °C pathway

KW - Downscaling

KW - Energy sector

KW - Integrated assessment models

KW - Mitigation

KW - Paris agreement

U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.020

DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.020

M3 - Article

VL - 133

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

M1 - 110705

ER -