The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

N. Fitton; P. Alexander; N. Arnell; B. Bajzelj; K. Calvin; J. Doelman; J.S. Gerber; P. Havlik; T. Hasegawa; M. Herrero; T. Krisztin; H. van Meijl; T. Powell; R. Sands; E. Stehfest; P.C. West; P. Smith

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

N. Fitton^*, P. Alexander, N. Arnell, B. Bajzelj, K. Calvin, J. Doelman, J.S. Gerber, P. Havlik, T. Hasegawa, M. Herrero, T. Krisztin, H. van Meijl, T. Powell, R. Sands, E. Stehfest, P.C. West, P. Smith

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

144 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

Original language	English
Article number	101944
Journal	Global Environmental Change
Volume	58
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2019

Keywords

Food security
Land use
Shared socio-economic pathways
Water availability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944Licence: CC BY

The percentage of total agricultural area under maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production, by country, subject to water scarcity in 2050 as estimated from a multi-model ensemble
Fitton, N. (Creator), Alexander, P. (Creator), Arnell, N. (Creator), Bajzelj, B. (Creator), Calvin, K. (Creator), Doelman, J. (Creator), Gerber, J. S. (Creator), Havlik, P. (Creator), Hasegawa, T. (Creator), Herrero, M. (Creator), Krisztin, T. (Creator), van Meijl, J. C. M. (Creator), Powell, T. (Creator), Sands, R. (Creator), Stehfest, E. (Creator), West, P. C. (Creator) & Smith, P. (Creator), University of Aberdeen, 1 Dec 2020
DOI: 10.5285/84b3b580-acbf-487d-bf44-c21bc2cf12ee
Dataset

Cite this

Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C., & Smith, P. (2019). The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity. Global Environmental Change, 58, Article 101944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

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Fitton, N, Alexander, P, Arnell, N, Bajzelj, B, Calvin, K, Doelman, J, Gerber, JS, Havlik, P, Hasegawa, T, Herrero, M, Krisztin, T, van Meijl, H, Powell, T, Sands, R, Stehfest, E, West, PC & Smith, P 2019, 'The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity', Global Environmental Change, vol. 58, 101944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

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T1 - The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

AU - Fitton, N.

AU - Alexander, P.

AU - Arnell, N.

AU - Bajzelj, B.

AU - Calvin, K.

AU - Doelman, J.

AU - Gerber, J.S.

AU - Havlik, P.

AU - Hasegawa, T.

AU - Herrero, M.

AU - Krisztin, T.

AU - van Meijl, H.

AU - Powell, T.

AU - Sands, R.

AU - Stehfest, E.

AU - West, P.C.

AU - Smith, P.

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N2 - Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

AB - Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

KW - Food security

KW - Land use

KW - Shared socio-economic pathways

KW - Water availability

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DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

M3 - Article

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VL - 58

JO - Global Environmental Change

JF - Global Environmental Change

M1 - 101944

ER -

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Datasets

The percentage of total agricultural area under maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production, by country, subject to water scarcity in 2050 as estimated from a multi-model ensemble

Cite this