The Role of Intrinsic Factors in Explaining Range Shifts of European Breeding Birds: A Meta-Analysis

Species are shifting their distribution ranges in response to climate and land-use change. However, the observed range shift patterns are idiosyncratic in rate and direction. Species traits, such as ecological, life-history and movement traits, may play an important role in determining range shifts by influencing a species' capacity to shift successfully. Whilst several studies investigate the role of different species traits in driving range shifts, they generally consider few traits and range shift types. Range shift types such as abundance shift and centroid shift are generally not taken into account. Drivers of range shifts may, however, differ per range shift type. We conducted a meta-analysis to uncover the role of intrinsic factors (nine species functional traits and five spatial abundance characteristics) in explaining six contemporary range shift types (range size changes: expansion/contraction, relative change and rate of change; latitudinal shifts: abundance shift, centroid shift and range margin shift) in European breeding birds (n = 270). We found that the role of intrinsic factors in explaining contemporary range shifts in European breeding birds is indeed range shift type dependent. Natal dispersal distance and clutch size were, for instance, positively related to range size changes, while diet breadth and conservation status showed both negative and positive relationships depending on the range shift type. Acknowledging limitations regarding unevenness of data availability across the study region, the region of study was an important predictor for range size changes, suggesting a relative importance of local context and extrinsic drivers. Future trait-based analyses of range shifts would benefit from accounting for intraspecific variation in functional traits across time and space, the inclusion of additional traits like phenological traits, exposure to environmental pressures, and competitive ability, and should be investigated across multiple scales and for multiple types of range shifts.