The risk of the introduction of classical swine fever virus at regional level in the European Union: a conceptual framework

Recent classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the European Union (EU) have clearly shown that preventing the introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) deserves high priority. Insight into all the factors contributing to the risk of CSFV introduction is a prerequisite for deciding which preventive actions are cost-effective. The relations between virus introduction and spread, prevention and control, and economic losses have been described using the conceptual framework presented in this paper. A pathway diagram provides insight into all the pathways contributing to the likelihood of CSFV introduction (LVI_CSF) into regions of the EU. A qualitative assessment based on this pathway diagram shows that regions with high pig densities generally have a higher LVI_CSF, although this cannot be attributed to pig density only. The pathway diagram was also used to qualitatively assess the reduction in LVI_CSF achieved by restructuring the pig production sector. Especially integrated chains of industrialised pig farming reduce the LVI_CSF considerably, but are also difficult and costly to implement. Quantitative assessment of the LVI_CSF on the basis of the pathway diagram is needed to support the results of the qualitative assessments described.