The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil

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Abstract

The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, is introduced as a possible improvement. An example from the Brazilian Amazon shows that by including an integrated set of factors and feedbacks, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can capture (future) dynamics of deforestation. The example substantiates the tool's capacity to improve the consistency of narrative storylines and the diversity of quantitative models. The tool is designed, however, to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks. Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario methods
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)122-133
JournalGlobal environmental change : human and policy dimensions
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Keywords

  • social-ecological systems
  • conservation
  • resilience
  • perspective
  • environment
  • future
  • amazon
  • models

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