The numbers game in wildlife conservation: changeability and framing of large mammal numbers in Zimbabwe

Wildlife conservation in terrestrial ecosystems requires an understanding of processes influencing population sizes. Top-down and bottom-up processes are important in large herbivore population dynamics, with strength of these processes varying spatially and temporally. However, up until recently the role of human-induced top-down and bottom-up controls have received little attention. This is despite the fact that almost all terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by human activities thereby likely altering the natural control of animal populations. Therefore, in this thesis, the role of natural and human-induced controls in influencing large herbivore populations and how human controls (i.e., policy instruments, incentives and provisions) influence human activities and wildlife conservation in a semi-arid African savanna ecosystem are investigated. This study primarily focuses on Gonarezhou National Park (hereafter, Gonarezhou), Zimbabwe and adjacent areas. Zimbabwe experienced an economic crisis and political instability between 2000 and 2008 following the land reforms that started in 2000 which were widely covered in the mass media.

The results indicated a weak synchrony in rainfall and drought occurrence (natural bottom-up process) in areas within the same “climatic” region, and variable responses of large herbivore species to the 1992 severe drought with most large herbivore species’ populations declining following the 1992 drought and increasing thereafter. Therefore, droughts are important in influencing large herbivore populations in semi-arid ecosystems. Furthermore, the results showed variation in the intensity of illegal hunting (top-down human control) which was associated with variation in law enforcement efforts in Gonarezhou. Law enforcement efforts in Gonarezhou were strengthened in 2004 following the employment of additional patrol rangers which resulted in increased park coverage and a decline in recorded illegal activities. Thus, the results show that political instability and economic collapse does not necessarily lead to increased illegal hunting in situations where policy instruments, such as laws, are enforced.

A higher perceived effectiveness of Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE - a community-based program that allows local people living in communal areas near protected areas in Zimbabwe to financially benefit from using the wildlife resources within their area) was partly associated with a decline in human-wildlife conflicts. In addition, local communities with higher perceived effectiveness of CAMPFIRE programs partly had more favourable attitudes towards problematic wild animals.  Moreover, the results showed that in the 1990s, the majority of newspaper articles highlighted that wildlife conservation in Zimbabwe was largely successful. However, following the land reforms that occurred in 2000, the international media lost interest in wildlife conservation in Zimbabwe, as evidenced by a sharp decline in published articles. Also, the frames changed in the international media with the “political unrest and land reform” blame frame becoming more dominant, and nature conservation was portrayed more negatively. The change in media frames shows that there was a spill-over effect from the political domain into wildlife conservation following Zimbabwe’s land reforms in 2000.

Overall, this study provides new insights on the processes influencing large herbivore population dynamics in human-dominated semi-arid savanna ecosystems which consist of diverse wildlife management regimes and also illuminates the importance of media framing and (mis-)representation of wildlife conservation issues following political instability, crisis or societal unrest. With these findings, it is concluded that natural bottom-up processes (e.g., droughts) influence large herbivore population dynamics whereas policy instruments, incentives, provisions and societal frames mainly have a top-down effect on wild large herbivore populations in savanna ecosystems.