The Impact of Ecological Construction Programs on Grassland Conservation in Inner Mongolia, China

A series of Ecological Construction Programs have been initiated to protect the condition of grasslands in China during recent decades. However, grassland degradation is still severe, and conditions have not been restored as intended. This paper aims to empirically examine the effectiveness of these programs for protecting the grassland condition in the extensive pastoral areas of China. We focus on one major program that has been implemented widely on the grasslands, the Subsidy and Incentive System for Grassland Conservation (SISGC). The normalized difference vegetation index, measured with remote sensing technology, is used to quantify the grassland condition between 2001 and 2014. With data from 54 counties in the pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia, we estimate the impact of SISGC on the grassland condition. A fixed effects model is employed to control for livestock production, climate, time trends, and time-invariant heterogeneity between counties. The model results provide quantitative evidence that the condition of the grasslands has improved significantly because of SISGC; but that the effectiveness of SISGC was offset to some extent by other socio-economic and climate factors, such as increased producer prices and high temperature. This may explain why the actual grassland degradation has not been prevented as effectively as was expected. In addition, the impact of SISGC was stronger in counties with worse initial grassland condition. Furthermore, the effects of producer prices and climate changes were also more pronounced in these counties.