The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a 'Brexit' from the EU

Pierre Boulanger, George Philippidis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)


This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as €14.0 billion, with the EU-28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the 'CAP' component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)832-842
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Agricultural Economics
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2015


  • Common agricultural policy
  • Computable general equilibrium
  • European union
  • Trade
  • United kingdom

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