The CAP Mid Term Review and the WTO Doha Round; Analyses for the Netherlands, EU and accession countries

This report analyses the potential impact of the EU CAP reforms that follow the Mid Term Review and the Harbinson Proposal for negotiation modalities in the WTO Doha Round on the Netherlands, EU14 and the accession countries. In welfare terms, the MTR has a rela-tively small impact on the Netherlands, the other member countries of the EU as well as the accession countries, while agricultural income decreases add up to around 2, 3 and 5 percent respectively. Under the Harbinson Proposal the Netherlands and the other EU member countries face losses of their agricultural incomes of 8 and 10 percent respec-tively, mainly due to reduced outputs in the cereals, oilseeds, and cattle sectors. The agricultural income in the accession countries is also decreasing. As a conclusion, the MTR does not make the European Agriculture compatible for the WTO Doha Round. The border protection measures, which are hardly affected in the MTR, still play a mayor role. Assumptions about the effects of decoupling and the difference between applied and bound tariff rates influence model results.