Temperature Risk Assessment in Urban Environments During Heat Wave Periods: A Case Study on the City of Novi Sad (Serbia)

The main goal of this research is to assess risk and map methodologies for the study of intensive heat waves in Novi Sad’s urban area. Novi Sad is the second largest city in the Republic of Serbia, with a built-up area of 102 km² and the population of 330,000 (data as of 2017). Intensive heat waves are a frequently occurring hazard in Central and Southeastern Europe and they may lead to a higher mortality of urban populations. Therefore, for the heat wave risk assessment, in situ air temperature (T_a) measurements from urban stations and the mortality rates of urban populations were used. The methodology used in this heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The nocturnal air temperatures from 9 PM to 5 AM during the summer of 2015 (as one of the hottest summer in the past few decades) were used. The nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. The average daily number of deaths by local climate zones (LCZs) was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. The results show that the most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2 and 5) had very high or high risk values and a higher rate of mortality. According to these results, local authorities could define hot spots where they could place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies. Furthermore, local and regional authorities, medical and urban planning institutions can use the obtained results and maps to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards.