Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Mark Roelfsema; Heleen L. van Soest; Mathijs Harmsen; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Christoph Bertram; Michel den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Gabriela Iacobuta; Volker Krey; Elmar Kriegler; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi; Falko Ueckerdt; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Matthew Gidden; Florian Humpenöder; Daniel Huppmann; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Keii Gi; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre C. Köberle; Lara Aleluia Reis; Pedro Rochedo; Roberto Schaeffer; Ken Oshiro; Zoi Vrontisi; Wenying Chen; Gokul C. Iyer; Jae Edmonds; Maria Kannavou; Kejun Jiang; Ritu Mathur; George Safonov; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Mark Roelfsema^*, Heleen L. van Soest, Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Gabriela Iacobuta, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Falko Ueckerdt, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Matthew Gidden, Florian HumpenöderDaniel Huppmann, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Keii Gi, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Lara Aleluia Reis, Pedro Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Ken Oshiro, Zoi Vrontisi, Wenying Chen, Gokul C. Iyer, Jae Edmonds, Maria Kannavou, Kejun Jiang, Ritu Mathur, George Safonov, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

290 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO₂eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

Original language	English
Article number	2096
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6
Publication status	Published - 29 Apr 2020

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ENGAGE: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions
1/09/19 → 31/12/23
Project: EU research project
CD-LINKS: Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing
1/09/15 → 30/09/19
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Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H. L., Harmsen, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Iacobuta, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Ueckerdt, F., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Gidden, M., ... Vishwanathan, S. S. (2020). Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 2096. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

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title = "Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement",

abstract = "Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.",

author = "Mark Roelfsema and {van Soest}, {Heleen L.} and Mathijs Harmsen and {van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.} and Christoph Bertram and {den Elzen}, Michel and Niklas H{\"o}hne and Gabriela Iacobuta and Volker Krey and Elmar Kriegler and Gunnar Luderer and Keywan Riahi and Falko Ueckerdt and Jacques Despr{\'e}s and Laurent Drouet and Johannes Emmerling and Stefan Frank and Oliver Fricko and Matthew Gidden and Florian Humpen{\"o}der and Daniel Huppmann and Shinichiro Fujimori and Kostas Fragkiadakis and Keii Gi and Kimon Keramidas and K{\"o}berle, {Alexandre C.} and {Aleluia Reis}, Lara and Pedro Rochedo and Roberto Schaeffer and Ken Oshiro and Zoi Vrontisi and Wenying Chen and Iyer, {Gokul C.} and Jae Edmonds and Maria Kannavou and Kejun Jiang and Ritu Mathur and George Safonov and Vishwanathan, {Saritha Sudharmma}",

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Roelfsema, M, van Soest, HL, Harmsen, M, van Vuuren, DP, Bertram, C, den Elzen, M, Höhne, N, Iacobuta, G, Krey, V, Kriegler, E, Luderer, G, Riahi, K, Ueckerdt, F, Després, J, Drouet, L, Emmerling, J, Frank, S, Fricko, O, Gidden, M, Humpenöder, F, Huppmann, D, Fujimori, S, Fragkiadakis, K, Gi, K, Keramidas, K, Köberle, AC, Aleluia Reis, L, Rochedo, P, Schaeffer, R, Oshiro, K, Vrontisi, Z, Chen, W, Iyer, GC, Edmonds, J, Kannavou, M, Jiang, K, Mathur, R, Safonov, G & Vishwanathan, SS 2020, 'Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement', Nature Communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 2096. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

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AU - den Elzen, Michel

AU - Höhne, Niklas

AU - Iacobuta, Gabriela

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - Kriegler, Elmar

AU - Luderer, Gunnar

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Ueckerdt, Falko

AU - Després, Jacques

AU - Drouet, Laurent

AU - Emmerling, Johannes

AU - Frank, Stefan

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Gidden, Matthew

AU - Humpenöder, Florian

AU - Huppmann, Daniel

AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro

AU - Fragkiadakis, Kostas

AU - Gi, Keii

AU - Keramidas, Kimon

AU - Köberle, Alexandre C.

AU - Aleluia Reis, Lara

AU - Rochedo, Pedro

AU - Schaeffer, Roberto

AU - Oshiro, Ken

AU - Vrontisi, Zoi

AU - Chen, Wenying

AU - Iyer, Gokul C.

AU - Edmonds, Jae

AU - Kannavou, Maria

AU - Jiang, Kejun

AU - Mathur, Ritu

AU - Safonov, George

AU - Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma

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AB - Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

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Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Abstract

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ENGAGE: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions

CD-LINKS: Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing

Cite this