Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes

Paula A. Harrison, Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Armağan Aloe Karabulut, Lluis Brotons, Matthew Cantele, Joachim Claudet, Robert W. Dunford, Antoine Guisan, Ian P. Holman, Sander Jacobs, Kasper Kok, Anastasia Lobanova, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez, Simona Pedde, Christian Rixen, Fernando Santos-Martín, Martin A. Schlaepfer, Cosimo Solidoro, Anthony Sonrel, Jennifer Hauck

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): Business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.

Original languageEnglish
Article number27
JournalEcology and Society
Volume24
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2019

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ecosystem service
sustainable development
decision making
biodiversity
environmental issue
environmental policy
environmental management
sustainability
economics
Central Asia
Europe
policy
analysis
society
science
convention
method

Keywords

  • Biodiversity
  • Drivers
  • Ecosystem services
  • Exploratory scenarios
  • Impacts
  • IPBES
  • Models
  • Nature
  • Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)

Cite this

Harrison, P. A., Harmáčková, Z. V., Karabulut, A. A., Brotons, L., Cantele, M., Claudet, J., ... Hauck, J. (2019). Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes. Ecology and Society, 24(2), [27]. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227
Harrison, Paula A. ; Harmáčková, Zuzana V. ; Karabulut, Armağan Aloe ; Brotons, Lluis ; Cantele, Matthew ; Claudet, Joachim ; Dunford, Robert W. ; Guisan, Antoine ; Holman, Ian P. ; Jacobs, Sander ; Kok, Kasper ; Lobanova, Anastasia ; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra ; Pedde, Simona ; Rixen, Christian ; Santos-Martín, Fernando ; Schlaepfer, Martin A. ; Solidoro, Cosimo ; Sonrel, Anthony ; Hauck, Jennifer. / Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes. In: Ecology and Society. 2019 ; Vol. 24, No. 2.
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Harrison, PA, Harmáčková, ZV, Karabulut, AA, Brotons, L, Cantele, M, Claudet, J, Dunford, RW, Guisan, A, Holman, IP, Jacobs, S, Kok, K, Lobanova, A, Morán-Ordóñez, A, Pedde, S, Rixen, C, Santos-Martín, F, Schlaepfer, MA, Solidoro, C, Sonrel, A & Hauck, J 2019, 'Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes' Ecology and Society, vol. 24, no. 2, 27. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227

Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes. / Harrison, Paula A.; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Karabulut, Armağan Aloe; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Claudet, Joachim; Dunford, Robert W.; Guisan, Antoine; Holman, Ian P.; Jacobs, Sander; Kok, Kasper; Lobanova, Anastasia; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Pedde, Simona; Rixen, Christian; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Solidoro, Cosimo; Sonrel, Anthony; Hauck, Jennifer.

In: Ecology and Society, Vol. 24, No. 2, 27, 01.07.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Harmáčková, Zuzana V.

AU - Karabulut, Armağan Aloe

AU - Brotons, Lluis

AU - Cantele, Matthew

AU - Claudet, Joachim

AU - Dunford, Robert W.

AU - Guisan, Antoine

AU - Holman, Ian P.

AU - Jacobs, Sander

AU - Kok, Kasper

AU - Lobanova, Anastasia

AU - Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra

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KW - Biodiversity

KW - Drivers

KW - Ecosystem services

KW - Exploratory scenarios

KW - Impacts

KW - IPBES

KW - Models

KW - Nature

KW - Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)

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DO - 10.5751/ES-10818-240227

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