Supply chains for processed potato and tomato products in the United States will have enhanced resilience with planting adaptation strategies

David Gustafson*, Senthold Asseng, John Kruse, Greg Thoma, Kaiyu Guan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Marty Matlock, Morven McLean, Ranjan Parajuli, Kirti Rajagopalan, Claudio Stöckle, Timothy B. Sulser, Layla Tarar, Keith Wiebe, Chuang Zhao, Clyde Fraisse, Carmen Gimenez, Pon Intarapapong, Tina Karimi, Chad KrugerYan Li, Elizabeth Marshall, Roger Leroy Nelson, Annette Pronk, Rubí Raymundo, Anne A. Riddle, Marc Rosenbohm, Dan Sonke, Frits van Evert, Genghong Wu, Liujun Xiao

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. Here, we apply an integrated methodology that includes climate, crop, economic and life cycle assessment models to US potato and tomato supply chains. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures. Land and water footprints will decline over time due to higher yields, and greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by waste reduction and process modification. Our integrated methodology can be applied to other crops, health-based consumer scenarios (fresh versus processed) and geographies, thereby informing decision-making throughout supply chains. Employing such methods will be essential as food systems are forced to adapt and transform to become carbon neutral due to the imperatives of climate change.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)862-872
JournalNature Food
Volume2
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2021

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