Stakeholder-designed scenarios for global food security assessments

Michiel van Dijk*, Marc Gramberger, David Laborde, Maryia Mandryk, Lindsay Shutes, Elke Stehfest, Hugo Valin, Katharina Faradsch

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess ‘wicked problems’, such as ensuring global food security, that are characterized by a high level of complexity and uncertainty. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios that are specifically designed to explore global food security up to the year 2050. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios, they have been developed using a participatory process, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. The scenarios consist of storylines and a scenario database that presents projections for key drivers, which can be used as an input into global simulation models.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100352
JournalGlobal Food Security
Volume24
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2020

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