Spatial impacts of climate and market changes on agriculture in Europe

Farmers and farming regions in the EU are increasingly concerned about whether they can remain competitive in a liberalising economy. Until now, climate change, which poses an additional stress to agriculture, is not included in recent assessment studies on the future competitiveness of the sector. In this atlas future changes in agricultural production and land use are projected considering combined effects of market and climate change. The study aims to identify regions in Europe that are likely to remain agricultural or that are likely to convert to other land uses. Two IPCC scenarios (global market with extensive fossil fuel use and regional markets) are considered for three time slices: 2005, 2020 and 2050. Two spatial boundaries are considered (Europe restricted to the EU-27 including Norway and Switzerland and Europe enlarged up to the Urals). The atlas focuses on the arable crops wheat and potato and on dairy farming. The assessment methodology includes three steps. 1) Calculation of the achievable food supply for wheat, potato and milk considering effects of climate change and technology development. 2) Calculation of the demand for wheat, potato and milk based on the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. 3) Adjustment of achievable supply to demand by adapting the area cultivated. This adjustment is based on the economic size of the farms used as competitiveness indicator. The results presented suggest spatial changes of agricultural production across EU-27 or EU-Ural