Spatial heternogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases

T.H.J. Hagenaars, C.A. Donelly, N.M. Ferguson

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    99 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The endemic persistence of infectious diseases can often not be understood without taking into account the relevant heterogeneities of host mixing. Here, we consider spatial heterogeneity, defined as `patchiness¿ of the host population. After briefly reviewing how disease persistence is influenced by population size, reproduction number and infectious period, we explore its dependence on the level of spatial heterogeneity. Analysis and simulation of disease transmission in a symmetric meta-population suggest that disease persistence typically becomes worse as spatial heterogeneity increases, although local persistence optima can occur for infections with oscillatory population dynamics. We obtain insight into the dynamics that underlie the observed persistence patterns by studying the infection prevalence correlation between patches and by comparing full-model simulations to results obtained using simplified patch-level descriptions of the interplay between local extinctions and between-patch transmissions. The observed patterns are interpreted in terms of rescue effects for strong spatial heterogeneity and in terms of between-patch coherence and synchronization effects at intermediate and weak levels of heterogeneity.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)349-359
    JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
    Volume229
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2004

    Fingerprint

    Infectious Diseases
    Spatial Heterogeneity
    Persistence
    infectious diseases
    Communicable Diseases
    Patch
    disease transmission
    infection
    simulation models
    population size
    extinction
    population dynamics
    Population Dynamics
    Infection
    Population Density
    Population dynamics
    Population
    Reproduction
    Metapopulation
    Reproduction number

    Keywords

    • stochastic epidemics
    • extinction times
    • community size
    • endemic period
    • metapopulation
    • dynamics
    • measles
    • models
    • transmission
    • duration

    Cite this

    Hagenaars, T.H.J. ; Donelly, C.A. ; Ferguson, N.M. / Spatial heternogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases. In: Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2004 ; Vol. 229, No. 3. pp. 349-359.
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    Spatial heternogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases. / Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Donelly, C.A.; Ferguson, N.M.

    In: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 229, No. 3, 2004, p. 349-359.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Spatial heternogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases

    AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

    AU - Donelly, C.A.

    AU - Ferguson, N.M.

    PY - 2004

    Y1 - 2004

    N2 - The endemic persistence of infectious diseases can often not be understood without taking into account the relevant heterogeneities of host mixing. Here, we consider spatial heterogeneity, defined as `patchiness¿ of the host population. After briefly reviewing how disease persistence is influenced by population size, reproduction number and infectious period, we explore its dependence on the level of spatial heterogeneity. Analysis and simulation of disease transmission in a symmetric meta-population suggest that disease persistence typically becomes worse as spatial heterogeneity increases, although local persistence optima can occur for infections with oscillatory population dynamics. We obtain insight into the dynamics that underlie the observed persistence patterns by studying the infection prevalence correlation between patches and by comparing full-model simulations to results obtained using simplified patch-level descriptions of the interplay between local extinctions and between-patch transmissions. The observed patterns are interpreted in terms of rescue effects for strong spatial heterogeneity and in terms of between-patch coherence and synchronization effects at intermediate and weak levels of heterogeneity.

    AB - The endemic persistence of infectious diseases can often not be understood without taking into account the relevant heterogeneities of host mixing. Here, we consider spatial heterogeneity, defined as `patchiness¿ of the host population. After briefly reviewing how disease persistence is influenced by population size, reproduction number and infectious period, we explore its dependence on the level of spatial heterogeneity. Analysis and simulation of disease transmission in a symmetric meta-population suggest that disease persistence typically becomes worse as spatial heterogeneity increases, although local persistence optima can occur for infections with oscillatory population dynamics. We obtain insight into the dynamics that underlie the observed persistence patterns by studying the infection prevalence correlation between patches and by comparing full-model simulations to results obtained using simplified patch-level descriptions of the interplay between local extinctions and between-patch transmissions. The observed patterns are interpreted in terms of rescue effects for strong spatial heterogeneity and in terms of between-patch coherence and synchronization effects at intermediate and weak levels of heterogeneity.

    KW - stochastic epidemics

    KW - extinction times

    KW - community size

    KW - endemic period

    KW - metapopulation

    KW - dynamics

    KW - measles

    KW - models

    KW - transmission

    KW - duration

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