Spatial distribution, productive importance and future prospects of two types of pastoralism in the Sahel and Horn of Africa

Adequate insights into the variability between agrosilvopastoral systems in different countries of the Sahel and the Horn of Africa are critical for the design of more effective and tailored development interventions. Structural differences in resource potential, rainfall pattern, land use and market linkages can explain to a large extent the likelihood of rural households to engage either in nomadic transhumance or semi-sedentary agropastoralism with mixed crop-livestock farming. In this paper, we bring together statistical information on key parameters for livestock development (such as population density, distance to markets, and length of growing season) and their impact on the organisation of agropastoral systems (herd size, rangeland management) that finally result in differences in performance of agropastoral households (land use, milk and meat production). We rely on multivariate approaches to assess the spatial distribution of the two agrosilvopastoral systems in each of the 16 countries of the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, and analyse the productive importance for the national economies. Next, we look at the possible implications of climate change for changes in the relative importance of each of the two agrosilvopastoral categories. This will be helpful to adequately tailor public investment and incentives towards the opportunities and needs of specific types of agropastoralists. We find that in nearly all countries the area under mobile pastoralism is larger than that under agropastoralism. This trend is particularly prominent in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, and Chad, where mobile pastoralism covers vast regions. Mobile pastoralism consistently shows larger average herd sizes (100-200 animals) than agropastoralism. Kenya and Ethiopia have substantial production of milk outputs (>3 million tonnes), whereas Chad and Nigeria produce significant amounts of meat. Climate change reduces the feasibility of agropastoralism: in 9.1% of the total area, current agropastoral zones are expected to become unsuitable due to reduced rainfall, whereas 7.5% of the region is expected to become newly suitable for pastoralism.