Soil Chemistry Aspects of Predicting Future Phosphorus Requirements in Sub-Saharan Africa

Daniel Magnone, Vahid J. Niasar, A.F. Bouwman, A.H.W. Beusen, S.E.A.T.M. van der Zee, S.Z. Sattari

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource and critical to plant growth and therefore food security. Regional‐ and continental‐scale studies propose how much P would be required to feed the world by 2050. These indicate that Sub‐Saharan Africa soils have the highest soil P deficit globally. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the P deficit caused by heterogeneous soil chemistry in the continental scale has never been addressed. We provide a combination of a broadly adopted P‐sorption model that is integrated into a highly influential, large‐scale soil phosphorus cycling model. As a result, we show significant differences between the model outputs in both the soil‐P concentrations and total P required to produce future crops for the same predicted scenarios. These results indicate the importance of soil chemistry for soil‐nutrient modeling and highlight that previous influential studies may have overestimated P required. This is particularly the case in Somalia where conventional modeling predicts twice as much P required to 2050 as our new proposed model.
LanguageEnglish
Pages327-337
JournalJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Volume11
Issue number1
Early online date2 Jan 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

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soil chemistry
Phosphorus
phosphorus
Soils
soil
food security
soil nutrient
modeling
sorption
crop
Africa
Nutrients
resource
Crops
Sorption

Cite this

Magnone, Daniel ; Niasar, Vahid J. ; Bouwman, A.F. ; Beusen, A.H.W. ; van der Zee, S.E.A.T.M. ; Sattari, S.Z. / Soil Chemistry Aspects of Predicting Future Phosphorus Requirements in Sub-Saharan Africa. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2019 ; Vol. 11, No. 1. pp. 327-337.
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title = "Soil Chemistry Aspects of Predicting Future Phosphorus Requirements in Sub-Saharan Africa",
abstract = "Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource and critical to plant growth and therefore food security. Regional‐ and continental‐scale studies propose how much P would be required to feed the world by 2050. These indicate that Sub‐Saharan Africa soils have the highest soil P deficit globally. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the P deficit caused by heterogeneous soil chemistry in the continental scale has never been addressed. We provide a combination of a broadly adopted P‐sorption model that is integrated into a highly influential, large‐scale soil phosphorus cycling model. As a result, we show significant differences between the model outputs in both the soil‐P concentrations and total P required to produce future crops for the same predicted scenarios. These results indicate the importance of soil chemistry for soil‐nutrient modeling and highlight that previous influential studies may have overestimated P required. This is particularly the case in Somalia where conventional modeling predicts twice as much P required to 2050 as our new proposed model.",
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Soil Chemistry Aspects of Predicting Future Phosphorus Requirements in Sub-Saharan Africa. / Magnone, Daniel; Niasar, Vahid J.; Bouwman, A.F.; Beusen, A.H.W.; van der Zee, S.E.A.T.M.; Sattari, S.Z.

In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, No. 1, 01.2019, p. 327-337.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Soil Chemistry Aspects of Predicting Future Phosphorus Requirements in Sub-Saharan Africa

AU - Magnone, Daniel

AU - Niasar, Vahid J.

AU - Bouwman, A.F.

AU - Beusen, A.H.W.

AU - van der Zee, S.E.A.T.M.

AU - Sattari, S.Z.

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N2 - Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource and critical to plant growth and therefore food security. Regional‐ and continental‐scale studies propose how much P would be required to feed the world by 2050. These indicate that Sub‐Saharan Africa soils have the highest soil P deficit globally. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the P deficit caused by heterogeneous soil chemistry in the continental scale has never been addressed. We provide a combination of a broadly adopted P‐sorption model that is integrated into a highly influential, large‐scale soil phosphorus cycling model. As a result, we show significant differences between the model outputs in both the soil‐P concentrations and total P required to produce future crops for the same predicted scenarios. These results indicate the importance of soil chemistry for soil‐nutrient modeling and highlight that previous influential studies may have overestimated P required. This is particularly the case in Somalia where conventional modeling predicts twice as much P required to 2050 as our new proposed model.

AB - Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource and critical to plant growth and therefore food security. Regional‐ and continental‐scale studies propose how much P would be required to feed the world by 2050. These indicate that Sub‐Saharan Africa soils have the highest soil P deficit globally. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the P deficit caused by heterogeneous soil chemistry in the continental scale has never been addressed. We provide a combination of a broadly adopted P‐sorption model that is integrated into a highly influential, large‐scale soil phosphorus cycling model. As a result, we show significant differences between the model outputs in both the soil‐P concentrations and total P required to produce future crops for the same predicted scenarios. These results indicate the importance of soil chemistry for soil‐nutrient modeling and highlight that previous influential studies may have overestimated P required. This is particularly the case in Somalia where conventional modeling predicts twice as much P required to 2050 as our new proposed model.

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