Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

R. Vautard, M. Schaap, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, P.J.H. Builtjes, M.C. Krol

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations. For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4822-4832
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume43
Issue number31
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Fingerprint

air quality
meteorology
ozone
inorganic compound
complex terrain
emission control
nitrogen dioxide
particulate matter
boundary condition
boundary layer
thermodynamics
aerosol
air
modeling
city
project

Keywords

  • 2003 heat-wave
  • climate-change
  • pollution model
  • western-europe
  • surface ozone
  • aerosol
  • simulations
  • summer
  • validation
  • transport

Cite this

Vautard, R., Schaap, M., Bergström, R., Bessagnet, B., Brandt, J., Builtjes, P. J. H., & Krol, M. C. (2009). Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble. Atmospheric Environment, 43(31), 4822-4832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.083
Vautard, R. ; Schaap, M. ; Bergström, R. ; Bessagnet, B. ; Brandt, J. ; Builtjes, P.J.H. ; Krol, M.C. / Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble. In: Atmospheric Environment. 2009 ; Vol. 43, No. 31. pp. 4822-4832.
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Vautard, R, Schaap, M, Bergström, R, Bessagnet, B, Brandt, J, Builtjes, PJH & Krol, MC 2009, 'Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble' Atmospheric Environment, vol. 43, no. 31, pp. 4822-4832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.083

Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble. / Vautard, R.; Schaap, M.; Bergström, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Brandt, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Krol, M.C.

In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 43, No. 31, 2009, p. 4822-4832.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

AU - Vautard, R.

AU - Schaap, M.

AU - Bergström, R.

AU - Bessagnet, B.

AU - Brandt, J.

AU - Builtjes, P.J.H.

AU - Krol, M.C.

PY - 2009

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N2 - Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations. For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics

AB - Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations. For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics

KW - 2003 heat-wave

KW - climate-change

KW - pollution model

KW - western-europe

KW - surface ozone

KW - aerosol

KW - simulations

KW - summer

KW - validation

KW - transport

U2 - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.083

DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.083

M3 - Article

VL - 43

SP - 4822

EP - 4832

JO - Atmospheric Environment

JF - Atmospheric Environment

SN - 1352-2310

IS - 31

ER -

Vautard R, Schaap M, Bergström R, Bessagnet B, Brandt J, Builtjes PJH et al. Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble. Atmospheric Environment. 2009;43(31):4822-4832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.083