Simulation modelling of BHV1-control programme at national level, with special attention to sensitivity analysis

In this paper, the framework and basic results of the simulation model InterIBR-endemic are presented. This model was developed to support policy makers during the compulsory eradication programme for bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1), that was implemented in The Netherlands in May 1998. The model closely interacted with a BHV1 monitoring programme, also related to the eradication campaign. The main objective of this study was to identify gaps in knowledge on BHV1 relevant for the eradication programme. For this, a detailed sensitivity analysis was performed for 31 model parameters. Simulation of the Dutch BHV1 eradication programme resulted in a median period of 334 weeks to reach a cow-level prevalence of 5 n the dairy cattle population, with median costs of EUR 106 million. Uncertainty of parameters for local spread and reactivation of BHV1 had most impact on both the period and costs of the simulated eradication programme. The uncertainty of the yearly reactivation rate of latently infected animals affected the costs by EUR 43 million. These factors should, therefore, have priority in further research