Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach

Jillian Student*, Mark R. Kramer, Patrick Steinmann

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103034
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume85
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2020

Keywords

  • Agent-based modelling (ABM)
  • Coastal tourism
  • Curaçao
  • Dynamic vulnerability approach
  • Environmental change
  • Scenario discovery

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