TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulated epidemiological and economic effects of measures to reduce piglet supply during a classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands
AU - Mangen, M.J.J.
AU - Nielen, M.
AU - Burrell, A.M.
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - The effects of additional measures adopted during a classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic to reduce piglet supply, namely, an insemination ban, abortion of sows and killing of young piglets, are studied using a stochastic, spatial, dynamic epidemiological simulation model of the pig sector in the Netherlands. The piglet supply derived from the epidemiological model is used as input for a sector-level market and trade model that simulates the pig market in the Netherlands. Changes in the economic welfare of different stakeholders are measured, as is the net welfare effect for the economy in the Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis is performed on parameters such as destruction capacity constraints and the duration of the high-risk period.
Additional measures to reduce piglet supply are found to have no epidemiological impact, but they do involve larger economic welfare changes for stakeholders and a larger net welfare loss for the economy in the Netherlands. These findings do not support the use of the additional measures. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that such measures do not solve the problem of a shortage in rendering capacities
AB - The effects of additional measures adopted during a classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic to reduce piglet supply, namely, an insemination ban, abortion of sows and killing of young piglets, are studied using a stochastic, spatial, dynamic epidemiological simulation model of the pig sector in the Netherlands. The piglet supply derived from the epidemiological model is used as input for a sector-level market and trade model that simulates the pig market in the Netherlands. Changes in the economic welfare of different stakeholders are measured, as is the net welfare effect for the economy in the Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis is performed on parameters such as destruction capacity constraints and the duration of the high-risk period.
Additional measures to reduce piglet supply are found to have no epidemiological impact, but they do involve larger economic welfare changes for stakeholders and a larger net welfare loss for the economy in the Netherlands. These findings do not support the use of the additional measures. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that such measures do not solve the problem of a shortage in rendering capacities
KW - stochastic simulation
KW - model
M3 - Article
VL - 22
SP - 811
EP - 822
JO - Revue scientifique et technique / Office International des Epizooties
JF - Revue scientifique et technique / Office International des Epizooties
SN - 0253-1933
IS - 3
ER -