Short-term impact of climate change on crop production and adaptation options in East Africa

Climate change presents an increasing threat to agriculture in East Africa, where rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events are undermining smallholder livelihoods. As part of the Climate Resilient Agribusiness for Tomorrow (CRAFT) project1, this study assesses the near-term impacts of climate change on key smallholder crops, common beans, maize, potatoes, sorghum, and soybeans, across selected districts in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Using an integrated approach that combines climate projections, crop suitability analysis, and yield modelling, the study examines how projected changes in temperature and precipitation during 2024–2033 are likely to affect crop performance. The analysis also evaluates the potential of low-cost adaptation strategies, specifically adjustments to planting dates and varietal selection, to mitigate climate-induced yield losses. The results highlight crop- and season-specific vulnerabilities, with legumes and tubers showing greater sensitivity to warming than cereals, while demonstrating that feasible management adaptations can substantially reduce near-term climate risks for smallholder farming systems.