Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Hermine Mitter; Anja K. Techen; Franz Sinabell; Katharina Helming; Erwin Schmid; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Ian Holman; Kasper Kok; Heikki Lehtonen; Adrian Leip; Chantal Le Mouël; Erik Mathijs; Bano Mehdi; Klaus Mittenzwei; Olivier Mora; Knut Øistad; Lillian Øygarden; Jörg A. Priess; Pytrik Reidsma; Rüdiger Schaldach; Martin Schönhart

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Hermine Mitter^*, Anja K. Techen, Franz Sinabell, Katharina Helming, Erwin Schmid, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Ian Holman, Kasper Kok, Heikki Lehtonen, Adrian Leip, Chantal Le Mouël, Erik Mathijs, Bano Mehdi, Klaus Mittenzwei, Olivier Mora, Knut Øistad, Lillian Øygarden, Jörg A. Priess, Pytrik Reidsma, Rüdiger SchaldachMartin Schönhart

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

66 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Original language	English
Article number	102159
Journal	Global Environmental Change
Volume	65
Early online date	19 Sept 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159
Publication status	Published - Nov 2020

Keywords

Consistency
Integrated assessment
Land use
Narrative
Scenario
Storyline development

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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SURE-Farm: Towards SUstainable and REsilient EU FARMing systems
1/06/17 → 31/05/21
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Mitter, H., Techen, A. K., Sinabell, F., Helming, K., Schmid, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Holman, I., Kok, K., Lehtonen, H., Leip, A., Le Mouël, C., Mathijs, E., Mehdi, B., Mittenzwei, K., Mora, O., Øistad, K., Øygarden, L., Priess, J. A., Reidsma, P., ... Schönhart, M. (2020). Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs. Global Environmental Change, 65, Article 102159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159

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title = "Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs",

abstract = "Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.",

keywords = "Consistency, Integrated assessment, Land use, Narrative, Scenario, Storyline development",

author = "Hermine Mitter and Techen, {Anja K.} and Franz Sinabell and Katharina Helming and Erwin Schmid and Bodirsky, {Benjamin L.} and Ian Holman and Kasper Kok and Heikki Lehtonen and Adrian Leip and {Le Mou{\"e}l}, Chantal and Erik Mathijs and Bano Mehdi and Klaus Mittenzwei and Olivier Mora and Knut {\O}istad and Lillian {\O}ygarden and Priess, {J{\"o}rg A.} and Pytrik Reidsma and R{\"u}diger Schaldach and Martin Sch{\"o}nhart",

year = "2020",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159",

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Mitter, H, Techen, AK, Sinabell, F, Helming, K, Schmid, E, Bodirsky, BL, Holman, I, Kok, K, Lehtonen, H, Leip, A, Le Mouël, C, Mathijs, E, Mehdi, B, Mittenzwei, K, Mora, O, Øistad, K, Øygarden, L, Priess, JA, Reidsma, P, Schaldach, R & Schönhart, M 2020, 'Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs', Global Environmental Change, vol. 65, 102159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159

TY - JOUR

T1 - Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems

T2 - The Eur-Agri-SSPs

AU - Mitter, Hermine

AU - Techen, Anja K.

AU - Sinabell, Franz

AU - Helming, Katharina

AU - Schmid, Erwin

AU - Bodirsky, Benjamin L.

AU - Holman, Ian

AU - Kok, Kasper

AU - Lehtonen, Heikki

AU - Leip, Adrian

AU - Le Mouël, Chantal

AU - Mathijs, Erik

AU - Mehdi, Bano

AU - Mittenzwei, Klaus

AU - Mora, Olivier

AU - Øistad, Knut

AU - Øygarden, Lillian

AU - Priess, Jörg A.

AU - Reidsma, Pytrik

AU - Schaldach, Rüdiger

AU - Schönhart, Martin

PY - 2020/11

Y1 - 2020/11

N2 - Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

AB - Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

KW - Consistency

KW - Integrated assessment

KW - Land use

KW - Narrative

KW - Scenario

KW - Storyline development

U2 - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159

DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85091093879

SN - 0959-3780

VL - 65

JO - Global Environmental Change

JF - Global Environmental Change

M1 - 102159

ER -

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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SURE-Farm: Towards SUstainable and REsilient EU FARMing systems

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