Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

H.M. Pereira; P.W. Leadley; V. Proenca; J.R.M. Alkemade; J.P.W. Scharlemann; J.F. Fernandez-Manjarres; M.B. Araujo; P. Balvanera; R. Biggs; W.W.L. Cheung; L. Chini; H.D. Cooper; E.L. Gilman; S. Guenette; G.C. Hurtt; H.P. Huntington; G.M. Mace; T. Oberdorff; C. Revenga; P. Rodrigues; R.J. Scholes; U.R. Sumaila; M. Walpole

doi:10.1126/science.1196624

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

H.M. Pereira, P.W. Leadley, V. Proenca, J.R.M. Alkemade, J.P.W. Scharlemann, J.F. Fernandez-Manjarres, M.B. Araujo, P. Balvanera, R. Biggs, W.W.L. Cheung, L. Chini, H.D. Cooper, E.L. Gilman, S. Guenette, G.C. Hurtt, H.P. Huntington, G.M. Mace, T. Oberdorff, C. Revenga, P. RodriguesR.J. Scholes, U.R. Sumaila, M. Walpole

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

1444 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are significant opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1496-1501
Journal	Science
Volume	330
Issue number	6010
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624
Publication status	Published - 2010

Keywords

climate-change
land-use
marine ecosystems
changing climate
range shifts
future
models
extinctions
distributions
vulnerability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1126/science.1196624

Cite this

Pereira, H. M., Leadley, P. W., Proenca, V., Alkemade, J. R. M., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Fernandez-Manjarres, J. F., Araujo, M. B., Balvanera, P., Biggs, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Chini, L., Cooper, H. D., Gilman, E. L., Guenette, S., Hurtt, G. C., Huntington, H. P., Mace, G. M., Oberdorff, T., Revenga, C., ... Walpole, M. (2010). Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science, 330(6010), 1496-1501. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624

@article{555e846bd4464020a41f0280b4ba37fc,

title = "Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century",

abstract = "Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are significant opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections",

keywords = "climate-change, land-use, marine ecosystems, changing climate, range shifts, future, models, extinctions, distributions, vulnerability",

author = "H.M. Pereira and P.W. Leadley and V. Proenca and J.R.M. Alkemade and J.P.W. Scharlemann and J.F. Fernandez-Manjarres and M.B. Araujo and P. Balvanera and R. Biggs and W.W.L. Cheung and L. Chini and H.D. Cooper and E.L. Gilman and S. Guenette and G.C. Hurtt and H.P. Huntington and G.M. Mace and T. Oberdorff and C. Revenga and P. Rodrigues and R.J. Scholes and U.R. Sumaila and M. Walpole",

year = "2010",

doi = "10.1126/science.1196624",

language = "English",

volume = "330",

pages = "1496--1501",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6010",

}

Pereira, HM, Leadley, PW, Proenca, V, Alkemade, JRM, Scharlemann, JPW, Fernandez-Manjarres, JF, Araujo, MB, Balvanera, P, Biggs, R, Cheung, WWL, Chini, L, Cooper, HD, Gilman, EL, Guenette, S, Hurtt, GC, Huntington, HP, Mace, GM, Oberdorff, T, Revenga, C, Rodrigues, P, Scholes, RJ, Sumaila, UR & Walpole, M 2010, 'Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century', Science, vol. 330, no. 6010, pp. 1496-1501. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

AU - Pereira, H.M.

AU - Leadley, P.W.

AU - Proenca, V.

AU - Alkemade, J.R.M.

AU - Scharlemann, J.P.W.

AU - Fernandez-Manjarres, J.F.

AU - Araujo, M.B.

AU - Balvanera, P.

AU - Biggs, R.

AU - Cheung, W.W.L.

AU - Chini, L.

AU - Cooper, H.D.

AU - Gilman, E.L.

AU - Guenette, S.

AU - Hurtt, G.C.

AU - Huntington, H.P.

AU - Mace, G.M.

AU - Oberdorff, T.

AU - Revenga, C.

AU - Rodrigues, P.

AU - Scholes, R.J.

AU - Sumaila, U.R.

AU - Walpole, M.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are significant opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections

AB - Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are significant opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections

KW - climate-change

KW - land-use

KW - marine ecosystems

KW - changing climate

KW - range shifts

KW - future

KW - models

KW - extinctions

KW - distributions

KW - vulnerability

U2 - 10.1126/science.1196624

DO - 10.1126/science.1196624

M3 - Article

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 330

SP - 1496

EP - 1501

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6010

ER -

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this