Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban

Pierre Boulanger*, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, George Philippidis

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    49 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex-post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number2
    Pages (from-to)272-291
    JournalJournal of Agricultural Economics
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Keywords

    • CGE
    • European Union
    • Russia
    • Trade

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this