Rivers on the counter-move: Late Holocene counterpoint deposition in the Lower Rhine River

The vulnerability of sandy soil landscapes in the south and east of the Netherlands is increasing due to factors such as intensive use, economic development, and water management. To ensure the productivity and sustainability of these regions in the face of climatic changes, it is crucial to assess their ecological and economic resilience, i.e., their ability to withstand stressors without changing their state. This study aims to investigate the potential effects of optimized land parcel sizes with variability in use and management practices on the future state of the landscape, as opposed to the current situation of a landscape dominated by large-scale homogeneous cropland and pastures with high economic functionality. The study will leverage existing data on biophysical properties and both land management and governance census of the study area to develop a dynamic model as a tool to assess ecosystem functionality that is responsive to environmental stressors, such as changes in precipitation patterns, as well as changes in development and management trajectories that can impact landscape state. Future landscape states will be predicted under different scenarios of parcellation and land use change, accounting for projected biophysical perturbations. The resilience of the scenarios will be comprehensively assessed, providing insights into the best possible future approaches to land management and parcellation for governance and society.