Risks For Ecosystem Services Provisioning From Natural Disturbance: A European Perspective

The amount of wood affected by natural disturbances in Europe has been increasing steadily over the last century. Climate change and changes in the state of the forest due to management have contributed equally to the observed increase in disturbance levels. Projected trends in climate change and forest development indicate that damage levels are likely to increase further in future. Furthermore, disturbance types are expected to expand their range as a consequence of changes in the climate. An increase in disturbance level, and changes in expected disturbance types, can have a large impact on forest service provisioning. Currently, natural disturbances are usually not incorporated into forest management planning and simulation models. Future projections should therefore be evaluated not only for their impact on various forest services, but also on their risks for natural disturbances. Carbon sequestration in forest biomass is the most obvious service under risk of disturbance, but also other services can be severely affected. Evaluating future disturbance risks across Europe calls for more generally applicable, mechanistic models than current (often deterministic and region-speci¿ c) models. A few examples of possible approaches will be demonstrated.