### Abstract

Original language | English |
---|---|

Pages (from-to) | 311-323 |

Journal | Annals of Operations Research |

Volume | 190 |

Issue number | 1 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - 2011 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- farm modeling approach
- utility function
- uncertainty
- decision
- allocation
- impacts
- choice

### Cite this

*Annals of Operations Research*,

*190*(1), 311-323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0555-y

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*Annals of Operations Research*, vol. 190, no. 1, pp. 311-323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0555-y

**Risk programming analysis with imperfect information.** / Lien, G.; Hardaker, J.B.; van Asseldonk, M.A.P.M.; Richardson, J.W.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk programming analysis with imperfect information

AU - Lien, G.

AU - Hardaker, J.B.

AU - van Asseldonk, M.A.P.M.

AU - Richardson, J.W.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - A Monte Carlo procedure is used to demonstrate the dangers of basing (farm) risk programming on only a few states of nature and to study the impact of applying alternative risk programming methods. Two risk programming formulations are considered, namely mean-variance (E,V) programming and utility efficient (UE) programming. For the particular example of a Norwegian mixed livestock and crop farm, the programming solution is unstable with few states, although the cost of picking a sub-optimal plan declines with increases in number of states. Comparing the E,V results with the UE results shows that there were few discrepancies between the two and the differences which do occur are mainly trivial, thus both methods gave unreliable results in cases with small samples.

AB - A Monte Carlo procedure is used to demonstrate the dangers of basing (farm) risk programming on only a few states of nature and to study the impact of applying alternative risk programming methods. Two risk programming formulations are considered, namely mean-variance (E,V) programming and utility efficient (UE) programming. For the particular example of a Norwegian mixed livestock and crop farm, the programming solution is unstable with few states, although the cost of picking a sub-optimal plan declines with increases in number of states. Comparing the E,V results with the UE results shows that there were few discrepancies between the two and the differences which do occur are mainly trivial, thus both methods gave unreliable results in cases with small samples.

KW - farm modeling approach

KW - utility function

KW - uncertainty

KW - decision

KW - allocation

KW - impacts

KW - choice

U2 - 10.1007/s10479-009-0555-y

DO - 10.1007/s10479-009-0555-y

M3 - Article

VL - 190

SP - 311

EP - 323

JO - Annals of Operations Research

JF - Annals of Operations Research

SN - 0254-5330

IS - 1

ER -