Abstract
This Research Note provides an empirical contribution to the discussion on the debt implications vis-à-vis the unfolding of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For this purpose, we analyze the impact of external debt and other relevant factors on the economies of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor using panel data over the period 1996–2018. The reasons we focus on this geographic area are threefold: first, these countries form a key part of the BRI with historical connections to the Silk Road; second, it provides a unique combination of economies in transition such as the former Soviet Union countries and larger economies such as Iran and Turkey; and last but not least, this corridor has received relatively less attention in the related literature. Among the main findings is that debt service on external debt has a positive effect on GNI per capita, both with and without China in the empirical analysis. As another key component of this major development strategy, infrastructure is also found to have a positive impact. The results thus foreshadow growing opportunities as the BRI unfolds, albeit with foreseen issues related to debt sustainability, ecological and wellbeing considerations.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 365-377 |
Journal | Eurasian Geography and Economics |
Volume | 64 |
Issue number | 3 |
Early online date | 9 Dec 2021 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 3 Apr 2023 |
Keywords
- Belt and Road Initiative
- China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor
- debt
- panel data models