TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk or opportunity? The Belt and Road Initiative and the role of debt in the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor
AU - van Twillert, Nienke
AU - Halleck Vega, Solmaria
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2023/4/3
Y1 - 2023/4/3
N2 - This Research Note provides an empirical contribution to the discussion on the debt implications vis-à-vis the unfolding of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For this purpose, we analyze the impact of external debt and other relevant factors on the economies of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor using panel data over the period 1996–2018. The reasons we focus on this geographic area are threefold: first, these countries form a key part of the BRI with historical connections to the Silk Road; second, it provides a unique combination of economies in transition such as the former Soviet Union countries and larger economies such as Iran and Turkey; and last but not least, this corridor has received relatively less attention in the related literature. Among the main findings is that debt service on external debt has a positive effect on GNI per capita, both with and without China in the empirical analysis. As another key component of this major development strategy, infrastructure is also found to have a positive impact. The results thus foreshadow growing opportunities as the BRI unfolds, albeit with foreseen issues related to debt sustainability, ecological and wellbeing considerations.
AB - This Research Note provides an empirical contribution to the discussion on the debt implications vis-à-vis the unfolding of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For this purpose, we analyze the impact of external debt and other relevant factors on the economies of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor using panel data over the period 1996–2018. The reasons we focus on this geographic area are threefold: first, these countries form a key part of the BRI with historical connections to the Silk Road; second, it provides a unique combination of economies in transition such as the former Soviet Union countries and larger economies such as Iran and Turkey; and last but not least, this corridor has received relatively less attention in the related literature. Among the main findings is that debt service on external debt has a positive effect on GNI per capita, both with and without China in the empirical analysis. As another key component of this major development strategy, infrastructure is also found to have a positive impact. The results thus foreshadow growing opportunities as the BRI unfolds, albeit with foreseen issues related to debt sustainability, ecological and wellbeing considerations.
KW - Belt and Road Initiative
KW - China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor
KW - debt
KW - panel data models
U2 - 10.1080/15387216.2021.2012816
DO - 10.1080/15387216.2021.2012816
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85121384559
SN - 1538-7216
VL - 64
SP - 365
EP - 377
JO - Eurasian Geography and Economics
JF - Eurasian Geography and Economics
IS - 3
ER -