Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry

G.J. Boender, T.H.J. Hagenaars, A. Bouma, G. Nodelijk, A.R.W. Elbers, M.C.M. de Jong, R.M. van Boven

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

117 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere71
JournalPLoS Computational Biology
Volume3
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007

Fingerprint

avian influenza
Poultry
Influenza in Birds
Influenza
poultry
Farms
farm
farms
Estimate
Virus
Animal Diseases
Animals
animal diseases
Pathogens
Orthomyxoviridae
Viruses
Influenza A virus
kernel
Netherlands
Reproduction number

Keywords

  • classical swine-fever
  • 2001 uk foot
  • mouth-disease
  • neighborhood infections
  • great-britain
  • a virus
  • epidemic
  • transmission
  • netherlands
  • strategies

Cite this

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title = "Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry",
abstract = "Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms",
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year = "2007",
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Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry. / Boender, G.J.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Bouma, A.; Nodelijk, G.; Elbers, A.R.W.; de Jong, M.C.M.; van Boven, R.M.

In: PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 3, No. 4, e71, 2007.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry

AU - Boender, G.J.

AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

AU - Bouma, A.

AU - Nodelijk, G.

AU - Elbers, A.R.W.

AU - de Jong, M.C.M.

AU - van Boven, R.M.

PY - 2007

Y1 - 2007

N2 - Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms

AB - Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms

KW - classical swine-fever

KW - 2001 uk foot

KW - mouth-disease

KW - neighborhood infections

KW - great-britain

KW - a virus

KW - epidemic

KW - transmission

KW - netherlands

KW - strategies

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DO - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071

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JO - PLoS Computational Biology

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SN - 1553-734X

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ER -