Resilience of Ethiopian Agropastoral Households in the Presence of Large-Scale Land Investments

Agropastoral societies in Ethiopia and elsewhere in Africa are facing challenges in their land use. Land shifts toward large-scale land investments have exacerbated the scarcity of pastures, thus affecting the resilience of pastoral systems. In this study, we assessed how large-scale land investments affect household resilience using data from the Living Standards Measurement Survey in Ethiopia. We estimated household resilience capacity by a multivariate two-step factor analysis and welfare resilience from net changes in welfare outcomes between two survey intervals. We also assessed the effect of large-scale land investment on household resilience using random effects ordered logistic regression model. Factors that enhanced the resilience capacities of households included access to livestock markets, social safety nets, extension, mobility, and social services. Approximately one-third of the study population had a low resilience capacity, and more than half had low welfare resilience. Moreover, proximity to a large-scale land investment significantly reduced households' likelihood of having high resilience capacity. Therefore, future resilience programs in agropastoral areas should mitigate the adverse effect of large-scale land investments by enhancing livelihood diversification and households' access to communal pastures.