Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling

Franz Tscheikner-Gratl*, Vasilis Bellos, Alma Schellart, Antonio Moreno-Rodenas, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Jeroen Langeveld, Francois Clemens, Lorenzo Benedetti, Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez, Rita Fernandes de Carvalho, Lutz Breuer, James Shucksmith, Gerard B.M. Heuvelink, Simon Tait

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper aims to stimulate discussion based on the experiences derived from the QUICS project (Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies). First it briefly discusses the current state of knowledge on uncertainties in sub-models of integrated catchment models and the existing frameworks for analysing uncertainty. Furthermore, it compares the relative approaches of both building and calibrating fully integrated models or linking separate sub-models. It also discusses the implications of model linkage on overall uncertainty and how to define an acceptable level of model complexity. This discussion includes, whether we should shift our attention from uncertainties due to linkage, when using linked models, to uncertainties in model structure by necessary simplification or by using more parameters. This discussion attempts to address the question as to whether there is an increase in uncertainty by linking these models or if a compensation effect could take place and that overall uncertainty in key water quality parameters actually decreases. Finally, challenges in the application of uncertainty analysis in integrated catchment water quality modelling, as encountered in this project, are discussed and recommendations for future research areas are highlighted.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)368-379
JournalWater Research
Volume150
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2019

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Catchments
Water quality
catchment
water quality
modeling
Uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty
Model structures
uncertainty analysis

Keywords

  • Complexity management
  • Integrated catchment modelling
  • Sub-models of integrated modelling
  • Uncertainty
  • Water quality

Cite this

Tscheikner-Gratl, F., Bellos, V., Schellart, A., Moreno-Rodenas, A., Muthusamy, M., Langeveld, J., ... Tait, S. (2019). Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling. Water Research, 150, 368-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.11.079
Tscheikner-Gratl, Franz ; Bellos, Vasilis ; Schellart, Alma ; Moreno-Rodenas, Antonio ; Muthusamy, Manoranjan ; Langeveld, Jeroen ; Clemens, Francois ; Benedetti, Lorenzo ; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel ; de Carvalho, Rita Fernandes ; Breuer, Lutz ; Shucksmith, James ; Heuvelink, Gerard B.M. ; Tait, Simon. / Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling. In: Water Research. 2019 ; Vol. 150. pp. 368-379.
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Tscheikner-Gratl, F, Bellos, V, Schellart, A, Moreno-Rodenas, A, Muthusamy, M, Langeveld, J, Clemens, F, Benedetti, L, Rico-Ramirez, MA, de Carvalho, RF, Breuer, L, Shucksmith, J, Heuvelink, GBM & Tait, S 2019, 'Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling', Water Research, vol. 150, pp. 368-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.11.079

Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling. / Tscheikner-Gratl, Franz; Bellos, Vasilis; Schellart, Alma; Moreno-Rodenas, Antonio; Muthusamy, Manoranjan; Langeveld, Jeroen; Clemens, Francois; Benedetti, Lorenzo; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; de Carvalho, Rita Fernandes; Breuer, Lutz; Shucksmith, James; Heuvelink, Gerard B.M.; Tait, Simon.

In: Water Research, Vol. 150, 01.03.2019, p. 368-379.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Tscheikner-Gratl, Franz

AU - Bellos, Vasilis

AU - Schellart, Alma

AU - Moreno-Rodenas, Antonio

AU - Muthusamy, Manoranjan

AU - Langeveld, Jeroen

AU - Clemens, Francois

AU - Benedetti, Lorenzo

AU - Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel

AU - de Carvalho, Rita Fernandes

AU - Breuer, Lutz

AU - Shucksmith, James

AU - Heuvelink, Gerard B.M.

AU - Tait, Simon

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AB - This paper aims to stimulate discussion based on the experiences derived from the QUICS project (Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies). First it briefly discusses the current state of knowledge on uncertainties in sub-models of integrated catchment models and the existing frameworks for analysing uncertainty. Furthermore, it compares the relative approaches of both building and calibrating fully integrated models or linking separate sub-models. It also discusses the implications of model linkage on overall uncertainty and how to define an acceptable level of model complexity. This discussion includes, whether we should shift our attention from uncertainties due to linkage, when using linked models, to uncertainties in model structure by necessary simplification or by using more parameters. This discussion attempts to address the question as to whether there is an increase in uncertainty by linking these models or if a compensation effect could take place and that overall uncertainty in key water quality parameters actually decreases. Finally, challenges in the application of uncertainty analysis in integrated catchment water quality modelling, as encountered in this project, are discussed and recommendations for future research areas are highlighted.

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Tscheikner-Gratl F, Bellos V, Schellart A, Moreno-Rodenas A, Muthusamy M, Langeveld J et al. Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling. Water Research. 2019 Mar 1;150:368-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.11.079