Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture

Heidi Webber, P. Reidsma, Frank Ewert

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingAbstract

Abstract

The broad EU public expects agriculture to improve global food security, protect the environment and sustain rural communities and landscapes. Agricultural policy makers must additionally consider resource scarcity and degradation, loss of biodiversity, climate change adaptation and, increasingly, mitigation. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) can simultaneously consider key
agricultural drivers and the main economic and environmental outcomes in identifying opportunities and balancing trade-offs for EU agriculture in the future. In this review of recent and on-going European scale IAM studies, results are synthesized to quantify the range of uncertainty for key impact variables. Explicit attention is given to the drivers (climate change, socio-economic scenarios, technological) and adaptations considered, their relative importance
across impact variables, feedbacks and cross-scale linkages. Crop management adaptations, widely demonstrated in regional studies, were found to have a large effect on crop yields as simulated with crop models, with relatively less influence on simulated economic variables. The few studies to simultaneously consider climate change and technological development, found yield trends offset yield losses due to climate change and be more important than adaptation.
The MACSUR Coordinate Global and Regional Assessment (CGRA) seeks to explicitly model yields trends with crop models, partnering with the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) to understand the relative contribution of management and breeding to past trends. Examples of heat and drought risk analysis with crop models are presented, though their consideration in economic studies
remains limited. Finally, opportunities are identified for cross-scale analysis and assessment within MACSUR.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBook of abstracts
Subtitle of host publicationMACSUR2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017, Berlin
Pages38-38
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2017
EventMACSUR Science Conference 2017 - Humboldt Universität, Berlin, Germany
Duration: 22 May 201724 May 2017

Conference

ConferenceMACSUR Science Conference 2017
CountryGermany
CityBerlin
Period22/05/1724/05/17

Fingerprint

agriculture
crop
climate change
economics
resource scarcity
agricultural policy
technological development
food security
crop yield
atlas
modeling
mitigation
drought
breeding
biodiversity
trend
loss
analysis
public
effect

Cite this

Webber, H., Reidsma, P., & Ewert, F. (2017). Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture. In Book of abstracts: MACSUR2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017, Berlin (pp. 38-38)
Webber, Heidi ; Reidsma, P. ; Ewert, Frank. / Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture. Book of abstracts: MACSUR2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017, Berlin. 2017. pp. 38-38
@inbook{653fa6dbfc144fb3bddae859a4cb5b44,
title = "Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture",
abstract = "The broad EU public expects agriculture to improve global food security, protect the environment and sustain rural communities and landscapes. Agricultural policy makers must additionally consider resource scarcity and degradation, loss of biodiversity, climate change adaptation and, increasingly, mitigation. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) can simultaneously consider keyagricultural drivers and the main economic and environmental outcomes in identifying opportunities and balancing trade-offs for EU agriculture in the future. In this review of recent and on-going European scale IAM studies, results are synthesized to quantify the range of uncertainty for key impact variables. Explicit attention is given to the drivers (climate change, socio-economic scenarios, technological) and adaptations considered, their relative importanceacross impact variables, feedbacks and cross-scale linkages. Crop management adaptations, widely demonstrated in regional studies, were found to have a large effect on crop yields as simulated with crop models, with relatively less influence on simulated economic variables. The few studies to simultaneously consider climate change and technological development, found yield trends offset yield losses due to climate change and be more important than adaptation.The MACSUR Coordinate Global and Regional Assessment (CGRA) seeks to explicitly model yields trends with crop models, partnering with the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) to understand the relative contribution of management and breeding to past trends. Examples of heat and drought risk analysis with crop models are presented, though their consideration in economic studiesremains limited. Finally, opportunities are identified for cross-scale analysis and assessment within MACSUR.",
author = "Heidi Webber and P. Reidsma and Frank Ewert",
year = "2017",
language = "English",
pages = "38--38",
booktitle = "Book of abstracts",

}

Webber, H, Reidsma, P & Ewert, F 2017, Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture. in Book of abstracts: MACSUR2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017, Berlin. pp. 38-38, MACSUR Science Conference 2017, Berlin, Germany, 22/05/17.

Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture. / Webber, Heidi; Reidsma, P.; Ewert, Frank.

Book of abstracts: MACSUR2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017, Berlin. 2017. p. 38-38.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingAbstract

TY - CHAP

T1 - Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture

AU - Webber, Heidi

AU - Reidsma, P.

AU - Ewert, Frank

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - The broad EU public expects agriculture to improve global food security, protect the environment and sustain rural communities and landscapes. Agricultural policy makers must additionally consider resource scarcity and degradation, loss of biodiversity, climate change adaptation and, increasingly, mitigation. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) can simultaneously consider keyagricultural drivers and the main economic and environmental outcomes in identifying opportunities and balancing trade-offs for EU agriculture in the future. In this review of recent and on-going European scale IAM studies, results are synthesized to quantify the range of uncertainty for key impact variables. Explicit attention is given to the drivers (climate change, socio-economic scenarios, technological) and adaptations considered, their relative importanceacross impact variables, feedbacks and cross-scale linkages. Crop management adaptations, widely demonstrated in regional studies, were found to have a large effect on crop yields as simulated with crop models, with relatively less influence on simulated economic variables. The few studies to simultaneously consider climate change and technological development, found yield trends offset yield losses due to climate change and be more important than adaptation.The MACSUR Coordinate Global and Regional Assessment (CGRA) seeks to explicitly model yields trends with crop models, partnering with the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) to understand the relative contribution of management and breeding to past trends. Examples of heat and drought risk analysis with crop models are presented, though their consideration in economic studiesremains limited. Finally, opportunities are identified for cross-scale analysis and assessment within MACSUR.

AB - The broad EU public expects agriculture to improve global food security, protect the environment and sustain rural communities and landscapes. Agricultural policy makers must additionally consider resource scarcity and degradation, loss of biodiversity, climate change adaptation and, increasingly, mitigation. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) can simultaneously consider keyagricultural drivers and the main economic and environmental outcomes in identifying opportunities and balancing trade-offs for EU agriculture in the future. In this review of recent and on-going European scale IAM studies, results are synthesized to quantify the range of uncertainty for key impact variables. Explicit attention is given to the drivers (climate change, socio-economic scenarios, technological) and adaptations considered, their relative importanceacross impact variables, feedbacks and cross-scale linkages. Crop management adaptations, widely demonstrated in regional studies, were found to have a large effect on crop yields as simulated with crop models, with relatively less influence on simulated economic variables. The few studies to simultaneously consider climate change and technological development, found yield trends offset yield losses due to climate change and be more important than adaptation.The MACSUR Coordinate Global and Regional Assessment (CGRA) seeks to explicitly model yields trends with crop models, partnering with the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) to understand the relative contribution of management and breeding to past trends. Examples of heat and drought risk analysis with crop models are presented, though their consideration in economic studiesremains limited. Finally, opportunities are identified for cross-scale analysis and assessment within MACSUR.

M3 - Abstract

SP - 38

EP - 38

BT - Book of abstracts

ER -

Webber H, Reidsma P, Ewert F. Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture. In Book of abstracts: MACSUR2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017, Berlin. 2017. p. 38-38