Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

P. Droogers, A.F. van Loon, W.W. Immerzeel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)669-678
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume12
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Fingerprint

climate change
impact assessment
simulation
hydrology
soil water
drought
agriculture
atmosphere

Keywords

  • climatic change
  • agrohydrology
  • soil water
  • ecohydrology
  • models
  • uncertainty assessment
  • basin
  • prediction
  • parameters
  • simulation
  • equation
  • future
  • soils

Cite this

@article{6655cebbe5a5497cb450474e5e2b1737,
title = "Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model",
abstract = "Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.",
keywords = "klimaatverandering, agrohydrologie, bodemwater, ecohydrologie, modellen, climatic change, agrohydrology, soil water, ecohydrology, models, uncertainty assessment, basin, prediction, parameters, simulation, equation, future, soils",
author = "P. Droogers and {van Loon}, A.F. and W.W. Immerzeel",
year = "2008",
doi = "10.5194/hess-12-669-2008",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
pages = "669--678",
journal = "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",
issn = "1027-5606",
publisher = "European Geosciences Union",
number = "2",

}

Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model. / Droogers, P.; van Loon, A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 12, No. 2, 2008, p. 669-678.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

AU - Droogers, P.

AU - van Loon, A.F.

AU - Immerzeel, W.W.

PY - 2008

Y1 - 2008

N2 - Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

AB - Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

KW - klimaatverandering

KW - agrohydrologie

KW - bodemwater

KW - ecohydrologie

KW - modellen

KW - climatic change

KW - agrohydrology

KW - soil water

KW - ecohydrology

KW - models

KW - uncertainty assessment

KW - basin

KW - prediction

KW - parameters

KW - simulation

KW - equation

KW - future

KW - soils

U2 - 10.5194/hess-12-669-2008

DO - 10.5194/hess-12-669-2008

M3 - Article

VL - 12

SP - 669

EP - 678

JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

SN - 1027-5606

IS - 2

ER -