Proposal for a semi-quantitative model for risk prioritization: Health impact appreciation

The EU sixth framework project SAFE FOODS aims at the development of a new integrated Risk Analysis Approach for foods integrating scientific principles, societal aspects and effective public participation. Within this project Work Package 3 entitled ¿Quantitative Risk Assessment of Combined Exposure to Food Contaminants and Natural Toxins¿ focuses on the development of a probabilistic risk assessment model. The outcome of this model is a quantitative risk estimate of the intake of chemicals (e.g. pesticides, mycotoxins, natural toxins) via food. There is an increasing need for quantitative risk assessment tools for the purpose of risk¿benefit and risk¿risk analyses. These tools will also facilitate choices in risk prioritization when the cost-effectiveness of risk reduction measures has to be carefully weighed. Three parameters are important: the fraction of the population at risk, the type of effect and the size (severity) of the effect itself. Further, the information should be provided to risk managers and policy makers in a manner that is easy-to-read. To meet these preconditions a concept is developed based on determination of Health Impact Criteria for toxicity endpoints leading to a Health Impact Appreciation for given exposure situations. The outcome is clearly presented by means of an easy readable Health Impact Chart. This Chart describes the results of a quantitative risk assessment in a graphical form showing the fraction of the population that is expected to be at no, low, medium or high risk for a given exposure situation. The basic concept will be presented and discussed with illustrative examples.