Projective Modeling and System Change: Reservoir Management Examples

In this paper a projective modeling approach for ecological/ environmental systems is introduced. The basic idea behind projective modeling is to define (possible) future output behavior and to use identifiable timevarying system parameters, representing underlying sub-processes, as an (additional) agent for control in order to investigate potential off-normal system changes. Recursive estimation techniques are used to calculate the parameter trajectories, which subsequently, for full understanding of the problem, are subject to physical interpretation. This idea of projective modeling is motivated by a real-world eutrophication example and further explained in some more detail on a class-room example, describing the outflow from a reservoir.