Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS

Myron A. Peck*, Christos Arvanitidis, Momme Butenschön, Donata Melaku Canu, Eva Chatzinikolaou, Andrea Cucco, Paolo Domenici, Jose A. Fernandes, Loic Gasche, Klaus B. Huebert, Marc Hufnagl, Miranda C. Jones, Alexander Kempf, Friedemann Keyl, Marie Maar, Stéphanie Mahévas, Paul Marchal, Delphine Nicolas, John K. Pinnegar, Etienne RivotSébastien Rochette, Anne F. Sell, Matteo Sinerchia, Cosimo Solidoro, Paul J. Somerfield, Lorna R. Teal, Morgan Travers-trolet, Karen E. Van De Wolfshaar

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life
stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification,
ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in
distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as
well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups andecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here,
confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)40-55
JournalEstuarine Coastal and Shelf Science
Volume201
Early online date24 May 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Feb 2018

Keywords

  • Ditribution
  • Modelling
  • Habitat
  • Resources
  • Man-induced effects

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