Price-predicting ability of farm managers : empirical findings with flower producers in the Netherlands

Differences in income among horticultural growers producing under similar conditions are known to be substantial. Production policy, including cultivar choice, plays an important role. Both price variation over time and price differences among cultivars provide valuable management information to growers to adapt their production policy. This study focuses on price-predicting skills of specialized chrysanthemum growers. The study, based on a survey among 26 participants, shows that growers who predict absolute prices well for one period do not have a higher chance of predicting well for other periods. With respect to predicting relative price positions (relative to other cultivars or other firms), evidence is found, however, that this is a skill, especially for estimating the relative market position. Also, evidence is provided that price differences among cultivars are nonrandom in time, and it is concluded that growers could adapt their production planning and cultivar choice to benefit from expected price variations.